Daily Archives: November 8, 2012

The New Babylonian Captivity

By Charles Donovan, National Review Online

I liked Krauthammer’s response on Fox last night that this is not a time for retooling ideology massively. The GOP young guns are a better bunch than the weak field we had to pick from for 2012, from Cruz to Rubio to Ayotte to Cantor. They are diverse in the right way, but social, economic, defense, and fiscal conservatives. Still they have a challenge — to keep their message consistent, avoid talk of truces on the issues, learn how to speak to and represent women, especially single women, rethink the foreign-policy rhetoric that implies the next war is just around the corner, and reach an accommodation on immigration that welcomes new people to our shores while maintaining social order. The GOP old guard received a hard kick yesterday. They talked only sporadically and defensively about social issues to the general public, had no sharp and oft-repeated messaging on health-care repeal and reform, and tried to win by “bread alone.” If they could not win that way this year, bread alone is not a winning proposition.

Two more things. Below is my chart on social issues in liberal states. We did not win much and will take a media beating over it. But all of our issues ran better than the GOP headliner in the eight states listed, with the exception of Florida’s disappointing results on the abortion and Blaine Amendment issues. The social issues are not to blame. I suspect many voters now believe there is no effective difference between the parties on these issues, no operational outcome on which they can rely. That is not to say there was no difference this time because I believe Romney would have kept his social promises, but a handful of his own dismissive comments about abortion and past GOP performance on the issue weaken the connection in many voters’ minds.

Finally, I received an e-mail from the Ronald Reagan Presidential Foundation yesterday. An inspiring message about carrying on RR’s tradition of comprehensive conservatism with a sunny spirit? Nope, it was an offer to buy special edition Donald Duck pens. Someone was deeply asleep at the switch. This mistimed missive was a good symbolic summary of the day.

We may be on the verge of a new Babylonian captivity for religious conservatives. As we know, the story does not end there.

*(81% of the vote)

Charles A. “Chuck” Donovan is the president of the Charlotte Lozier Institute.

Arizona Exit Polling–Presidential Race

Republican Mitt Romney carried Arizona in the 2012 election. Following is the Fox News exit polling for Grand Canyon State voters:

Exit PollPresident – ArizonaSample: 1682 respondents Barack Obama Mitt Romney
Are you: Total Obama Romney

Male

49% 40% 57%

Female

51% 46% 53%

Sample: 1682 respondents

In which age group are you? Total Obama Romney

18-29

26% 63% 36%

30-44

29% 37% 59%

45-64

32% 38% 61%

65 or over

12% 29% 71%

Sample: 1672 respondents

In which age group are you? Total Obama Romney

18-24

13% 66% 32%

25-29

13% 59% 39%

30-39

20% 37% 58%

40-49

19% 40% 58%

50-64

23% 36% 64%

65 or over

12% 29% 71%

Sample: 1672 respondents

Are you: Total Obama Romney

White

74% 32% 66%

Black

4% - -

Hispanic/Latino

18% 74% 25%

Asian

2% - -

Other

2% - -

Sample: 1642 respondents

Sex by race Total Obama Romney

White men

37% 30% 67%

White women

37% 35% 65%

Black men

2% - -

Black women

2% - -

Latino men

8% 71% 27%

Latino women

10% 77% 22%

All other races

4% - -

Sample: 1642 respondents

On most political matters, do you consider yourself: Total Obama Romney

Liberal

19% 86% 12%

Moderate

42% 51% 46%

Conservative

39% 12% 87%

Sample: 1615 respondents

No matter how you voted today, do you usually think of yourself as a: Total Obama Romney

Democrat

26% 87% 12%

Republican

35% 7% 93%

Independent or something else

39% 45% 51%

Sample: 1651 respondents

What was the last grade of school you completed? Total Obama Romney

No high school diploma

2% - -

High school graduate

19% 46% 54%

Some college/assoc. degree

36% 42% 56%

College graduate

29% 36% 63%

Postgraduate study

15% 54% 42%

Sample: 1640 respondents

What was the last grade of school you completed? Total Obama Romney

College graduate

44% 42% 56%

No college degree

56% 44% 55%

Sample: 1640 respondents

What was the last grade of school you completed? Total Obama Romney

More than high school graduate

80% 42% 56%

High school graduate or less

20% 46% 53%

Sample: 1640 respondents

2011 total family income: Total Obama Romney

Under $30,000

21% 49% 49%

$30,000 – $49,999

23% 45% 54%

$50,000 – $99,999

33% 41% 57%

$100,000 – $199,999

18% 37% 61%

$200,000 – $249,999

2% - -

$250,000 or more

3% - -

Sample: 1499 respondents

2011 total family income: Total Obama Romney

Under $50,000

45% 47% 51%

$50,000-$99,999

33% 41% 57%

$100,000 or more

23% 43% 56%

Sample: 1499 respondents

2011 total family income: Total Obama Romney

Under $50,000

45% 47% 51%

$50,000 or more

55% 42% 56%

Sample: 1499 respondents

2011 total family income: Total Obama Romney

Under $100,000

77% 44% 54%

$100,000 or more

23% 43% 56%

Sample: 1499 respondents

How often do you attend religious services? Total Obama Romney

More than once a week

10% - -

Once a week

23% - -

A few times a month

12% - -

A few times a year

29% - -

Never

27% - -

Sample: 319 respondents

How often do you attend religious services? Total Obama Romney

Weekly

32% 17% 80%

Occasionally

40% 36% 63%

Never

27% - -

Sample: 319 respondents

Religion, combined Protestant and other Christian Total Obama Romney

Protestant or other Christian

53% 29% 70%

Catholic

20% 50% 50%

Jewish

1% - -

Something else

7% - -

None

19% - -

Sample: 616 respondents

Religion among whites Total Obama Romney

White Protestant/Other Christian

44% 20% 79%

White Catholic

13% - -

White Jewish

1% - -

White something else

4% - -

White none

15% - -

Non-white

24% 71% 27%

Sample: 609 respondents

Church attendance by Religion Total Obama Romney

Protestant/Attend weekly

8% - -

Protestant/Do not attend weekly

15% - -

Catholic/Attend weekly

8% - -

Catholic/Do not attend weekly

11% - -

All Others

58% 45% 53%

Sample: 319 respondents

White evangelical or white born-again Christians Total Obama Romney

White evangelical or white born-again Christian

21% - -

All others

79% 43% 56%

Sample: 317 respondents

Which comes closest to your position? Abortion should be: Total Obama Romney

Legal in all cases

26% - -

Legal in most cases

37% 43% 54%

Illegal in most cases

27% - -

Illegal in all cases

8% - -

Sample: 319 respondents

Which comes closest to your position? Abortion should be: Total Obama Romney

Legal

64% 51% 48%

Illegal

35% 10% 89%

Sample: 319 respondents

How do you feel about the Tea Party movement? Total Obama Romney

Support

21% - -

Neutral

50% 28% 71%

Oppose

22% 85% 14%

Sample: 319 respondents

Which ONE of these four issues is the most important facing the country? (CHECK ONLY ONE) Total Obama Romney

Foreign policy

7% - -

Federal budget deficit

19% 20% 72%

The economy

58% 43% 57%

Health care

13% 75% 25%

Sample: 689 respondents

Which ONE of these four candidate qualities mattered most in deciding how you voted for president? (CHECK ONLY ONE) Total Obama Romney

Shares my values

28% 32% 67%

Is a strong leader

17% 31% 67%

Cares about people like me

19% 77% 17%

Has a vision for the future

34% 44% 55%

Sample: 689 respondents

Which ONE of these four is the biggest economic problem facing people like you? (CHECK ONLY ONE) Total Obama Romney

The housing market

7% - -

Unemployment

34% 43% 57%

Taxes

10% - -

Rising prices

45% 43% 52%

Sample: 338 respondents

What should happen to the 2010 health care law? Total Obama Romney

Expand it

23% - -

Leave it as is

13% - -

Repeal some of it

22% - -

Repeal all of it

35% - -

Sample: 340 respondents

What should happen to the 2010 health care law? Total Obama Romney

Expand it or leave it as is

36% 89% 8%

Repeal some of it or repeal all of it

57% 9% 88%

Sample: 340 respondents

Should income tax rates: Total Obama Romney

Increase for all

7% - -

Increase only on income over $250,000

46% 60% 35%

Not increase for anyone

45% 22% 77%

Sample: 342 respondents

Should most illegal immigrants working in the United States be: Total Obama Romney

Offered a chance to apply for legal status

61% 51% 47%

Deported to the country they came from

33% - -

Sample: 319 respondents

Who is more in touch with people like you? Total Obama Romney

Barack Obama

50% 83% 15%

Mitt Romney

45% - 100%

Sample: 340 respondents

Who would better handle the economy? Total Obama Romney

Barack Obama

39% 98% -

Mitt Romney

58% 4% 94%

Sample: 340 respondents

Who would better handle Medicare? Total Obama Romney

Barack Obama

40% 96% 2%

Mitt Romney

53% 1% 98%

Sample: 340 respondents

Who would better handle the federal budget deficit? Total Obama Romney

Barack Obama

39% 98% -

Mitt Romney

59% 4% 94%

Sample: 342 respondents

Which is closer to your view: Total Obama Romney

Government should do more to solve problems

38% 88% 12%

Government is doing too many things better left to businesses and individuals

58% 20% 80%

Sample: 351 respondents

Do you think the condition of the nation’s economy is: Total Obama Romney

Excellent

- - -

Good

13% - -

Not so good

44% 52% 46%

Poor

42% 17% 77%

Sample: 338 respondents

Do you think the condition of the nation’s economy is: Total Obama Romney

Excellent or good

13% - -

Not so good or poor

86% 35% 61%

Sample: 338 respondents

Is the U.S. economy: Total Obama Romney

Getting better

39% 89% 9%

Getting worse

26% 4% 96%

Staying about the same

30% - -

Sample: 338 respondents

Economic Conditions Are… Total Obama Romney

Getting better

39% 89% 9%

Good and staying the same

1% - -

Poor and staying the same

29% - -

Getting worse

26% 4% 96%

Sample: 338 respondents

Compared to four years ago, is your family’s financial situation: Total Obama Romney

Better today

32% 92% 8%

Worse today

39% 7% 92%

About the same

28% 57% 43%

Sample: 351 respondents

Do you think things in this country today are: Total Obama Romney

Generally going in the right direction

47% 86% 14%

Seriously off on the wrong track

46% 8% 90%

Sample: 315 respondents

Who is more to blame for current economic problems? Total Obama Romney

Barack Obama

42% 4% 96%

George W. Bush

47% 83% 15%

Sample: 338 respondents

Do you think the U.S. economic system generally: Total Obama Romney

Favors the wealthy

49% 64% 31%

Is fair to most Americans

46% 17% 83%

Sample: 340 respondents

Should taxes be raised to help cut the budget deficit? Total Obama Romney

Yes

33% 84% 16%

No

65% 20% 75%

Sample: 338 respondents

Which comes closest to your feelings about the Obama administration: Total Obama Romney

Enthusiastic

17% - -

Satisfied, but not enthusiastic

24% - -

Dissatisfied, but not angry

38% 13% 81%

Angry

20% - -

Sample: 342 respondents

Which comes closest to your feelings about the Obama administration: Total Obama Romney

Positive

41% 89% 10%

Negative

58% 8% 88%

Sample: 342 respondents

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as president? Total Obama Romney

Strongly approve

22% 93% 3%

Somewhat approve

21% - -

Somewhat disapprove

10% - -

Strongly disapprove

46% - 98%

Sample: 340 respondents

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as president? Total Obama Romney

Approve

43% 91% 7%

Disapprove

56% 3% 94%

Sample: 340 respondents

Is your opinion of Barack Obama: Total Obama Romney

Favorable

54% 87% 12%

Unfavorable

44% 1% 98%

Sample: 315 respondents

Is your opinion of Mitt Romney: Total Obama Romney

Favorable

51% 4% 96%

Unfavorable

44% 95% 2%

Sample: 315 respondents

Do Barack Obama’s policies generally favor: Total Obama Romney

The rich

14% - -

The middle class

44% 87% 12%

The poor

29% - -

Sample: 315 respondents

Would Mitt Romney’s policies generally favor: Total Obama Romney

The rich

48% 85% 13%

The middle class

39% 15% 83%

The poor

4% - -

Sample: 315 respondents

Do you trust Barack Obama to handle an international crisis? Total Obama Romney

Yes

47% 84% 13%

No

53% 3% 94%

Sample: 340 respondents

Do you trust Mitt Romney to handle an international crisis? Total Obama Romney

Yes

60% 13% 85%

No

35% 86% 10%

Sample: 340 respondents

Do you trust _____ to handle an international crisis? Total Obama Romney

Only Barack Obama

29% 100% -

Only Mitt Romney

45% - 100%

Both of them

15% - -

Neither of them

6% - -

Sample: 340 respondents

Which best describes your vote for president today? Total Obama Romney

I strongly favor my candidate

52% 39% 60%

I like my candidate but with reservations

26% - -

I dislike the other candidates

19% - -

Sample: 323 respondents

When did you finally decide for whom to vote in the presidential election? Total Obama Romney

Just today

1% - -

In the last few days

5% - -

In October

11% - -

In September

9% - -

Before that

74% 47% 53%

Sample: 351 respondents

When did you finally decide for whom to vote in the presidential election? Total Obama Romney

Just today or in the last few days

6% - -

In October or in September or before that

93% 48% 52%

Sample: 351 respondents

When did you finally decide for whom to vote in the presidential election? Total Obama Romney

Just today or in the last few days or in October

16% - -

Before that

82% 47% 53%

Sample: 351 respondents

Are you currently married? Total Obama Romney

Yes

55% 32% 67%

No

45% 58% 40%

Sample: 1319 respondents

Gender by marital status Total Obama Romney

Married men

30% 29% 68%

Married women

26% 35% 64%

Non-married men

19% 56% 42%

Non-married women

25% 60% 39%

Sample: 1319 respondents

Do you have any children under 18 living in your home? Total Obama Romney

Yes

34% 48% 51%

No

66% 42% 57%

Sample: 970 respondents

Married with children: Total Obama Romney

Married with children

22% 38% 61%

All others

78% 46% 53%

Sample: 971 respondents

Parents Total Obama Romney

Men with children

18% 39% 59%

Women with children

15% 59% 41%

Men without children

32% 44% 55%

Women without children

34% 41% 59%

Sample: 970 respondents

Does anyone in your household belong to a labor union? Total Obama Romney

Yes

11% - -

No

89% 50% 48%

Sample: 311 respondents

Do you work full-time for pay? Total Obama Romney

Yes

66% 51% 48%

No

34% 42% 56%

Sample: 318 respondents

Should your state legally recognize same-sex marriage? Total Obama Romney

Yes

57% 55% 44%

No

42% 10% 88%

Sample: 323 respondents

Are you gay, lesbian or bisexual? Total Obama Romney

Yes

7% - -

No

93% 42% 56%

Sample: 621 respondents

In your vote for president, how would you rate the importance of Obama’s hurricane response? Total Obama Romney

The most important factor

14% - -

An important factor

28% - -

A minor factor

23% - -

Not a factor at all

32% - -

Sample: 140 respondents

In your vote for president, how would you rate the importance of Obama’s hurricane response? Total Obama Romney

Important

41% - -

Not important

55% - -

Sample: 140 respondents

In your vote for president, how would you rate the importance of Obama’s hurricane response? Total Obama Romney

Factor

64% - -

Not a factor

32% - -

Sample: 140 respondents

Population of area, five categories Total Obama Romney

Over 500,000

17% 55% 45%

50,000 – 500,000

33% 50% 47%

Suburbs

40% 35% 64%

10,000 – 50,000

3% - -

Rural

7% - -

Sample: 1682 respondents

Population of area, three categories Total Obama Romney

City over 50,000

50% 52% 46%

Suburbs

40% 35% 64%

Small city and Rural

10% 33% 65%

Sample: 1682 respondents

 

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