Kelly’s Unfavorable Ratings Double; Senate Race A Dead Heat

PHOENIX – Today, the McSally for Senate campaign released a new memo on the state of the race. During the last several months Senator McSally’s grassroots support has grown and the polls show a dead heat race. After garnering record support during the primary and the weeks since, one thing is clear: Republicans are united to send Martha McSally back to the U.S. Senate in November.

“This is a dead heat election. Our team has never been more prepared as we enter the final stretch of this campaign. The more voters learn about Mark Kelly’s record of shady business dealings and evasiveness on the important questions that matter to Arizonans, the more they reject him.” Caroline Anderegg, Communications Director

Read below for key insights or find the memo here.


TO: Interested Parties
FROM: Dylan Lefler; Campaign Manager, McSally for Senate, Inc.
RE: State of the Race
DATE: 08/24/2020


The primary has come and gone, and we are now in the General Election. After a decisive victory for Martha McSally, one thing is clear: Republicans are united to send Martha McSally back to the U.S. Senate in November. As fall approaches, we have seen this race behave more like the toss-up it has always been. Dark money Democratic groups have spent nearly $30 million on TV attempting to tear down Senator McSally, but they’ve had little success sinking her image.

The McSally campaign has made a commitment to spending the summer attempting to educate Arizonans so that a real conversation can be had with voters this fall. We launched a series of ads that highlighted real Arizonans talking about Mark Kelly’s past business dealings. They all featured the same tagline: “Mark Kelly will do anything for a buck and say anything for a vote.” We have seen Mark’s unfavorable image has nearly doubled overall since we began sharing the truth on his record. The more Arizonans learn about Mark Kelly, the more they realize what a strong Senator they have in Martha McSally.

Concerns over Kelly’s business dealings are not the only red flags about his candidacy. Kelly will lead you to believe he is an independent voice for Arizona, but the truth is that his first vote in the Senate will be to make Chuck Schumer Majority Leader. This would mean a slew of far-left policies, including the Green New Deal, government takeover of health care, and higher taxes, would slip right on through with Mark Kelly as the rubber stamp. Mark Kelly is simply not the right fit for Arizona.


There have been over a dozen public polls commissioned for this race. Many have had problematic methodology and inconsistencies, yet the media churns them out as fact. The truth is this race has always been a toss-up, and with outside dollars pouring into the state’s media markets, it’s clear that both Democrats and Republicans agree this is one of the most competitive races in the country.

Since the campaign’s initial polling, Mark Kelly’s unfavorable rating has nearly doubled overall, going from 19 percent unfavorable to 35 percent in our most recent polling. This trend of growth in Kelly’s unfavorable rating can be seen among several key sub- groups, such as independents and women, particularly homemakers.


Outside of Leader McConnell, Senator McSally is the strongest fundraiser in the Republican caucus. Martha is the first U.S. Senator in Arizona history to have raised more than $30 million in any election cycle and continues to outperform her goals each quarter. The small dollar program has been particularly impressive; the average contribution is $36 with more than 200,000 donors giving each quarter.

However, due to Mark Kelly’s work to become a national celebrity after leaving NASA and his close association with far-left activist groups, he has been able to raise over $50 million, far out-pacing other Democratic candidates. Our campaign has a plan to use our resources strategically to compete with Kelly’s cash advantage. We will have the funding we need to communicate our message.


The campaign made a commitment to investing in field organizing early. Since June of last year, we have opened five field offices and hired more than 60 field staff. We have invested in our data operation and have contacted over 1.5 million Arizona voters so far.

The McSally campaign also publicly released a list of County Campaign Chairs that represent strong support for Martha McSally’s leadership in all 15 Arizona counties.

Arizona First

Martha is working hard for Arizona. As a freshman Senator, she tied for the most bills passed into law last year.

She is working across the aisle with Democrats and Republicans to get results for Arizonans. She was ranked number six for bipartisanship, which helped her pass the highest number of bills into law.

When she’s not in D.C. passing laws, Martha is traveling the state listening to Arizonans and hearing about the issues that matter to them. Recently, she made a swing in Navajo and Apache counties and showed her support for law enforcement with Vice President Pence in Tucson.

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