And if the Republican Nominee Can’t Win Arizona …

A polling firm known as OH Predictive Insights has Mrs. Bill Clinton leading Donald Trump in Arizona, 46.6 percent to 42.2 percent. The poll was taken June 20.

It’s still early, yes, but Democrats usually never lead in Arizona presidential polls.

And if the Republican doesn’t win Arizona, he has absolutely no chance to win the November election.

The poll surveyed 1,060 likely voters based on a projection of the November turnout.

Breaking down this poll,  Trump is leading by six points in rural Arizona — which is not a good indicator.

Mrs. Bill Clinton, an ardent socialist advocating for over-control of the American individual, family and private business, has a whopping 17-point lead in Pima County, and that’s no surprise because it’s dominated politically by leftists.

Another bad indicator for Trump is a tie in Maricopa County, the county where Republican candidates can usually count on running up the score and overcoming deficits elsewhere in the state.

Women in Arizona gave Mrs. Bill Clinton a 12-point edge, despite her history of looking the other way while her husband used and abused women and her state department underpaying women.

OH Predictive Insights is a subsidiary of Owens Harkey Advertising. It’s located in Phoenix.

 

 

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Rep. Schweikert will not tangle with mud-slinging McCain in this year’s primary

Arizona superstar conservative Congressman David Schweikert confirmed he is not planning to run against entrenched U.S. Senator John McCain in this year’s Republican Primary.

We have long recommended Schweikert for a Senate run, but we know it will be extremely difficult to get the RINO out of the Senate. Too many people have been wasting their vote on a veteran and former POW to give him the boot. That’s a sad, but true, fact of life in Arizona.

It will be left to Arizona Senator Dr. Kelli Ward to brawl with McCain, who does two things every time he’s up for election:

First, he claims to be a conservative.

Second, he destroys any conservative who gets in his way.

McCain lacks the temperament and the principle to be a good Senator. His career is one of complacency and under-performing. We deserve better representation.

Senator Jeff Flake is a McCain puppet, and we strongly recommend Schweikert go after his Senate seat at the first opportunity. Again, Arizonans deserve better representation than we are getting from this McCain shadow.

Dark Money

By The Goldwater Institute

The proponents of mandatory reporting of private civic activities have won a major marketing victory by the widespread use of the phrase, “dark money.”  As one commentator put it, “Dark money.  The name itself carries ominous undertones, undertones that critics of this relatively new campaign-finance phenomenon claim reflect a genuine threat to democracy.”[x]  But the term is misleading.  “Dark money” would be more aptly referred to by what those who find free speech objectionable actually support – mandated government disclosure.  The use of such terms is intended to cast suspicion on those who contribute to various civic causes so the debate revolves around ad hominem attacks rather than engaging on the issues.

So, what is “dark money”?  It conjures images of shady political operatives greasing the palms of politicians in dark, smoked-filled rooms.  But does it also apply to traditional political activities, like you and your neighbor contributing your time and money to civic and social activities that you support?  And is it really a threat to democracy, or are those who seek to silence the voice of opposition and limit speech the real threats?

“Dark money” generally refers to funds spent for political activities by businesses, unions, nonprofit organizations, and individuals who are not required by law to disclose the identities of their donors.  Depending on where supporters of government disclosure draw the inherently arbitrary line, dark money could refer to donations made to the American Civil Liberties Union (“ACLU”) or to your local church or soup kitchen.

As a general matter, all spending that calls for the election or defeat of a political candidate or constitutes “electioneering communications” involves some level of disclosure to the government.  In fact, there are more disclosure obligations on the books today than at any other time in our nation’s history.[xi]  Nevertheless, some supporters of government disclosure claim that current laws do not go far enough.  They assert that certain charitable and social welfare organizations, including those organized under § 501(c) of the federal tax code, should be forced to disclose the identities of their individual donors when those organizations engage in political activity, even if that is not their primary function.[xii]

Those calling for the elimination of “dark money” are thus attempting to dramatically extend the reach of government-mandated disclosure to a wide variety of organizations, activities, and communications.

Advocates for expanded disclosure call for such dramatic and far-reaching regulations despite the fact that “dark money” is not a pervasive element in American politics. Some government disclosure advocates claim that so-called “dark money” expenditures constitute a significant portion of political spending in the United States.[xiii]  But the characterization is inaccurate.  In the 2014 election cycle, the Federal Elections Commission reported approximately $5.9 billion in total spending on federal elections.[xiv]  Of that $5.9 billion, roughly $173 million came from groups that are not required by law to disclose donors.[xv]  This represents a mere 2.9 percent of all spending on federal elections – hardly a significant portion.  In fact, this figure represents a decline from the 2012 election cycle, where such expenditures amounted to 4.4 percent of spending on federal races.[xvi]  As the Center for Competitive Politics observed from the 2012 election cycle, “Nearly all of the organizations that financed such independent expenditures . . . were well-known entities, including the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, the League of Conservation Voters, the National Rifle Association, Planned Parenthood, the National Association of Realtors, the National Federation of Independent Business, NARAL Pro-Choice America, and the Humane Society.”[xvii]  As a result, there is no secret as to what causes and issues such groups support.

Under existing campaign finance laws, the identities of these groups must be revealed when making direct contributions to candidates or political parties or engaging in other electioneering communications.  Additionally, donor identities must be disclosed when they specifically earmark their donations to nonprofit organizations to be used for electioneering communications.  Those types of donations can hardly be characterized as “dark money” in need of further regulation when under existing disclosure rules, anyone can see that the NRA contributed to Candidate X and Planned Parenthood contributed to Candidate Y.  The positions of those organizations are well known.  Characterizing those expenditures as “dark money” is, therefore, disingenuous.  But forcing further disclosure of donor identities is at best unnecessary, as donors may contribute to organizations to support the overall mission rather than any specific political candidate.  Their donations are intended to support certain issues, not politicians.

Claims that “dark money” is distorting American politics are even more tenuous when leveled at 501(c)(3)s, considering these nonprofit organizations are prohibited from participating in any partisan political activity.

McCain Angers ACU with False Claims about Conservatism

By Michelle Moons, Breitbart.com

Senator John McCain (R-AZ)’s campaign team is getting called out by the very organization whose rating it cited on Twitter.  Team McCain advertised his 91 percent rating in 2014 from conservative group ACU as the Washington insider heads into a tough 2016 campaign season.  What it doesn’t mention is his abysmal 2013 rating of 52 percent or his history of higher ratings going into re-election fights.

The American Conservative Union (ACU), host of the hugely popular Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC), rates Congressional officeholders year over year.

McCain’s lifetime ACU based on 32 years in office is 82.13 percent.  Looking back over the past decade, the numbers vary widely, and spiked during his 2010 primary challenge.

2006:   65 percent

2007:   80 percent

2008:   63 percent

2009:   96 percent

2010:   100 Percent (as he faced primary challenger J.D. Hayworth)

2011:   80 percent

2012:   92 percent

2013:   52 percent

2014:   91 percent

McCain certainly seems concerned.  He’s taken to Twitter to boost his image:

The ACU replied to McCain’s tweet with the following:

Arizonans have wearied of McCain.  What many Arizonans remember is the promise he made in his infamous “build the danged fence” border security campaign ad.

Republicans in his own state officially censured him in 2014, the year he claims a lofty conservative rating.  Since the censure reports have surfaced that McCain and his allies have launched a political cleansing of their Arizona leadership, ousting one conservative Republican after another.  Politico reported that after the censure, McCain’s team sought to, “unseat conservative activists who hold obscure, but influential, local party offices.”

Just before announcing his re-election effort, worried emails began pouring from the McCain camp.  “I’m going to be the target of a wide array of powerful groups,” he said in a plea for his own re-election.  That letter was quickly followed with a worried message from his wife, emphasizing fear-invoking dangers in the world and a plea to keep her husband in office.

Arizona State Senator Kelli Ward opened an exploratory committee in March that will help her determine whether she has the political and financial path available to challenge McCain in what she has called a battle on the scale of David vs. Goliath.

U.S. Representative Rep. Matt Salmon (R-AZ) has been quiet about whether he intends to challenge McCain, but that remains a possibility.  Salmon told the Hill he has yet to announce whether he’s in or out or will even run for re-election to his seat in the House. GOP party leaders have indicated Salmon could delay his decision until the fall.

Governor-Elect Ducey will have a Republican Legislature to Work with

SPECIAL BULLETIN

Republicans will maintain control of the Arizona Legislature. Republicans are on their way to victory in 16 state Senate races, the party of CONTROL* has won 13 seats. The only issue in doubt is in District 6.

Former lawmakers Sylvia Allen (Republican) and Thomas O’Halleran (Independent) are locked in a very close race. With just over half the precincts reporting, O’Halleran leads by about 600 votes. Allen got into the race very late when the conservative incumbent, Chester Crandall, died in a horseback riding accident near Heber just days before the August primary. The late Crandall won unopposed, but Allen was able to replace him on the GOP ticket.

If Allen wins the seat, the GOP will have a 17-13 Senate majority. If O’Halleran wins the seat, the GOP will hold 16 seats, the party of CONTROL 13 and there would be one Independent seat.

Republicans are claiming 37 Arizona House of Representative seats, CONTROL 23 seats.

So Governor-elect Ducey will have a Republican majority to work with for the first two years of his first term.

STATEWIDE RACES

Doug Ducey appears on his way to becoming Arizona’s next governor. Fellow Republicans are leading Democrats in all of the other statewide office elections with 1,103 of 1,566 precincts reporting in these state office contests.

Ducey, former state treasurer, leads Comrade Fred DuVal of the party of CONTROL 53-41 percent. The good news is that Arizona will avoid the record spending binges and budget deficits that DuVal would have accrued had he been elected. It would have been a repeat of the Napolitano years when the former governor spent money far faster that the state could generate revenues. But under Governor Ducey, fiscal sanity is a certainty.

We also believe — and certainly hope — Ducey’s administration will be friendly to life, liberty and family. He gave every intention to the Center for Arizona Policy that this would be the case, and we urge him to hold true.

In the race for attorney general, GOP Mark Brnovich has a lead of 66,000 votes over CONTROL candidate Felicia Rotellini, 53.4 percent to 46.6 percent.

Secretary of state race is a little closer. Liberal Republican Michele Reagan has 52 percent of the vote, surprising frequent CONTROL candidate and former attorney general, Terry Goddard, 48 percent.

Closer still is the race between Republican Diane Douglas and CONTROL’s David Garcia. Douglas leads by about 1,500 votes, with 50.87 percent of the vote to Garcia’s 49.08. Douglas wants to get rid of the Big Socialism education curriculum, Common Core. Garcia would be a disaster for Arizona’s children.

Jeff DeWit, another Republican, is running unopposed for state treasurer.

The party of CONTROL refused to allow its members to select candidates for governor or attorney general. No one other than Comrade DuVal, who wants to move Arizona forward communist style, or Rottelini, were allowed to compete for those nominations in the August primary election.

CONGRESSIONAL RACES

Conservative Congressmen Matt Salmon, Trent Franks, Paul Gosar and David Schweikert are all sailing to victory.

Salmon said: “Tonight’s election results make one thing exceedingly clear: Arizonans want their elected officials to get government out of the way and support policies that will let the private sector thrive and create jobs.”

CONTROL incumbents Kyrsten Sinema, Ron Barber, and Raul Grijalva are all on their way to re-election as well.

Ann Kirkpatrick, another CONTROL incumbent, is pulling away from Andy Tobin in a congressional race, and now leads by 5 percentage points with 177 of 327 precincts in.

Ruben Gallego (CONTROL) has sewn up election in the congressional seat held for many years by the retired Ed Pastor.

The top vote-getters, in order, for Arizona Corporation Commission are Republicans Doug Little and Tom Forese and then CONTROL’s Sandra Kennedy a distant third.

Judges

Among judges up for retention, Scott Bales is winning handily. He was appointed by former Gov. Janet Napolitano (CONTROL).

Props

Prop 122, which will stem out of control federal government interference with Arizona, is barely ahead, by just one percent.

The Right to Try prop, 303, is winning big.

And as it has done numerous times, the attempt to raise state legislator pay (Prop 304) is losing bigtime.

In Phoenix, the unfunded/pension spiking madness is likely to continue. Prop 487 is up 55 to 45 percent.

CONCLUSION

All in all, it’s a good night for America and Arizona (on the 11th anniversary of The Arizona Conservative, No. 1 cultural commentator in the state). Though politics is downstream from culture, tonight’s results are a good sign that people have had enough of Big Government Socialism, the Obama Administration, and the do-nothing U.S. Senate under Harry Reid’s abdication of responsibility and leadership. This is also a great day for the sanctity of life, for families, and especially for free speech and religious liberty.

We remember the wisdom of President Reagan, one of the five truly great presidents in this nation, who said during his first inaugural address:

“We are a nation that has a government—not the other way around. And this makes us special among the nations of the Earth. Our government has no power except that granted it by the people. It is time to check and reverse the growth of government, which shows signs of having grown beyond the consent of the governed.”

Thank you for coming here to consult our election recommendations and coverage.

May God bless America.

* The reason we refer to Democrats as the party of CONTROL is because their radical philosophy is to try to control every aspect of your lives — to your detriment.

Black Day in Arizona: One Judge Throws out 1.2 Million Votes for Marriage

Balderdash!

Tyranny!

The out of control, tyrannical, activist courts are … out of control, tyrannical and activist again!

Voters, you’ve been had!

U.S. District Court Judge John Sedwick has thrown out all the 2008 votes that enacted a state constitutional marriage amendment recognizing marriage as the union of one man and one woman. He ruled that a recent decision by the Ninth Circus appeals court to redefine marriage applies to Arizona.

This is un-American. Arizonans should be outraged!

There is no place in a court of law for activists like Judge Sedwick or any of the other judicial activists who have been destroying marriage in recent months by overturning the will of millions of Americans who defined marriage in fair and honest elections. These judges need to be impeached or voted out.

What will follow is blatant fascism by homosexual activists and their friends in the political party they’ve captured – the Democratic Party. Christians and non-Christians alike who define marriage as one man and one woman will be punished merely for disagreeing with same-sex “marriage” and special rights for people struggling with same-sex attraction and gender confusion.

We are already seeing this all across the country. And this is why the Arizona Legislature passed 1062 earlier this year to strengthen protections for Arizonans who don’t want to be forced to endorse behavior they disapprove of. Of course, we remember that homosexual pressure groups, along with their cowardly media friends running cover for them, intimidated the bejabbers out of Governor Jan Brewer and stampeded her into vetoing the bill.

With the latest activist antics in Judge Sedwick’s court, we can now expect people to lose their jobs over refusal to perform same-sex weddings. Photographers, florists, bakers, and others involved in wedding venues can now be severely punished and harassed by left-wing local and state office holders for not agreeing to endorse the message of same-sex marriage. It’s happened from the Atlantic coast to Hawaii. Why wouldn’t it happen here?

A run-away, out of control government will come down with all of its weight and fury on honest people following their consciences. Some will be fined and burdened by unconstitutional demands. Others will be forced out of business. They will receive hate mail, hateful phone calls, and threats. It will be a feeding frenzy for those on the radical Left.

You see, same-sex “marriage” and religious freedom cannot co-exist. Non-discrimination laws and radical left-wing dogma will over-rule the free exercise of religion guaranteed by the Founding Fathers who wrote the First Amendment. The Bill of Rights means absolutely nothing to the Left.

This is a sad day in Arizona. A black day.

In November of 2008, a total of 1,258,355 Arizonans voted to enact marriage as one man and one woman in the state Constitution. A single man, a man with incredible hubris, threw that out. This is the America we live in today. It is not the America of James Madison and the Founders who penned the Constitution and the Bill of Rights. Not by a long shot.

We are not alone. This is happening all over America. Tens of millions of voters have been disenfranchised.

And this is the cost of allowing the party of CONTROL, the Democrats, to pack the courts with Constitution-challenged activist judges.

All that’s left is for radical scavengers to clean up the scraps – demonizing anyone who disagrees. Take our word: persecution is coming, fascism will warp into high gear among Arizona’s hardcore leftists. You disagree with the homosexual agenda? Okay, consider yourself a target for the fascists.

A final word to Judge Sedwick and the other activists who have co-opted the courts and disenfranchised the people: when you come to a gate in the road, before removing it take time to consider why it was put there in the first place.

*  *  *

VITALLY IMPORTANT INFORMATION FOR CHURCHES AND PASTORS

It is crucial you update church policy on rental of church facilities to protect yourselves from litigation when someone asks you to officiate over a same-sex “wedding” or to rent church property for a same-sex “marriage.” Consult an attorney with expertise in religious freedom law. Don’t wait. Do it now!

VITALLY IMPORTANT INFORMATION FOR BUSINESSES

If you are asked to provide a service or a product for a same-sex “wedding,” and you are opposed to doing so on religious grounds, do not respond to the homosexuals’ request until first consulting an attorney. This will help you avoid a legal entanglement that could land you in hot water or potentially force you to go out of business. Don’t wait. Do it now!

General Election Endorsements

The Arizona Conservative is endorsing candidates for public office in the Grand Canyon State in advance of the November 4 general elections. Voters have two choices: candidates who will champion FREEDOM for the individual and those who will push policies that deny and reduce personal freedoms – the candidates of socialism and excessive government CONTROL of your life. Whom do you want in office? Those who will protect your constitutional freedom, or those who would expand government and take away more and more of your freedom, controlling more and more of your life? Your vote will impact every facet of American society and culture. Please make informed and intelligent decisions. Vote on values and principle, not on personalities and negative advertising. Compare what candidates actually say and how they have legislated previously; if you do this, you will find that many candidates from the party of CONTROL will not be as truthful.

Office Freedom Control
Governor Doug Ducey Fred DuVal
Secretary of State Terry Goddard
Attorney General Republican candidate removed for supporting same-sex “marriage” Felicia Rotellini
State Treasurer Jeff DeWitt
Supt. Of Public Instruction Diane Douglas David Garcia
Mining Inspector Joe Hart Manuel Cruz
Congress-District 1 Ann Kirkpatrick
Congress-District 2 Martha McSally Ron Barber
Congress-District 3 Gabriela Saucedo Mercer Raul Grijalva
Congress-District 4 Paul Gosar Mikel Weisser
Congress-District 5 Matt Salmon
Congress-District 6 David Schweikert
Congress-District 7 Steve Gallardo, Cesar Chavez
Congress-District 8 Trent Franks Helmuth Hack
Congress-District 9 Wendy Rogers Kyrsten Sinema

Arizona Legislature

District 1

Senate:

House: Karen Fann

District 2

Senate:

House:

District 3

Senate:

House:

District 4

Senate: Connie Uribe

House:

District 5

Senate: Kelli Ward

House:

District 6

Senate: Sylvia Allen

House: Brenda Barton

District 7

Senate:

House:

District 8

Senate: Irene Littleton

House:

District 9

Senate:

House:

District 10

Senate:

House:

District 11

Senate: Steve Smith

House: Vince Leach, Mark Finchem

District 12

Senate: Andy Biggs

House: Eddie Farnsworth, Warren Peterson

District 13

Senate: Don Shooter

House: Darin Mitchell, Steve Montenegro

District 14

Senate: Gail Griffin

House: David Gowan, David Stevens

District 15

Senate: Nancy Barto

House: John Allen

District 16

Senate: David Farnsworth

House: Kelly Townsend

District 17

SenateA Steve Yarbrough

House: J.D. Mesnard, Jeff Weninger

District 18

Senate:

House: Jill Norgaard

District 19

Senate: Joseph Hobbs

House:

District 20

Senate: Kimberly Yee

House: Paul Boyer

District 21

Senate: Debbie Lesko

House: Rick Gray

District 22

Senate: Judy Burges

House: David Livington, Phil Lovas

District 23

Senate: John Kavanaugh

House: Jay Lawrence, Michelle Ugenti

District 24

Senate:

House:

District 25

Senate:

House: Rusty Bowers, Justin Olsen

District 26

Senate:

House:

District 27

Senate:

House:

District 28

Senate:

House: Shawna Bolick

District 29

Senate:

House:

District 30

Senate: Gary Cox

House: