Recent polling in the Arizona Gubernatorial race shows support for Kari Lake decreasing and support for Karrin Taylor Robson increasing.
Last month, Kari Lake’s team released polling saying that she had increased her lead over the other candidates by significant margins (see figure 1). Insiders were quick to point out that the polling firm used only online panels, which are considered less accurate than live caller polls, and that the firm, Cygnal, was relatively new and had ties to Lake allies.
Bad polling is a contributing factor to the almost 20% swing away from Kari but the ads highlighting Kari Lake’s donations and campaigning for President Obama, lying about an NRA Lifetime Membership and supporting giving illegal immigrants mass amnesty were a major factor as well.
The trend lines are clear though, Karrin Taylor Robson continues to make increases among those undecided voters where Kari Lake seems to be stalling. The primary is just under 2 months away with early ballots being sent out on July 6th and anything could happen but its becoming very clear that it’s a two person race.